Agricultural Production Forecast to Ease After Record Year

Following a record year in 2025-26, ABARES is forecasting the value of agricultural production to fall by 5 per cent to $98.3 billion in 2026-27, or $104.5 billion when fisheries and forestry are included.

The outlook reflects expectations of lower crop production and softer livestock prices, as many regions move into a drier seasonal pattern.

Winter crop production is forecast to decline by 21 per cent to 54.5 million tonnes, driven by reduced planting area and lower average yields across key growing regions.

ABARES Acting Executive Director David Galeano says seasonal conditions and rainfall variability are already shaping farmer decision-making ahead of winter planting.

He says while some regions have benefited from recent rainfall, others are facing tightening soil moisture and reduced planting intentions.

Despite the decline, ABARES says the sector remains resilient, although elevated fuel and fertiliser costs are expected to continue weighing on farm profitability.