Record lamb prices driven by quality and selective demand

Meat & Livestock Australia data shows lamb prices reached record levels in 2025, with the Heavy Lamb Indicator peaking at 1,245 cents per kilo carcase weight in August.

While the market was frequently described as facing tight supply, MLA analysis suggests overall lamb numbers did not collapse, with production estimated at 610,000 tonnes — just three per cent lower than 2024 and still above 2023 levels.

MLA said the key driver through winter was quality rather than sheer volume. The market consistently rewarded lambs that met processor and supermarket specifications, while prices softened when offerings lacked weight or finish. This created the impression of widespread shortages, even when overall supply remained relatively stable.

Seasonal conditions also played a role, with poor weather in southern regions delaying the usual new-season lamb flow. This created short-term supply gaps at a time when demand remained firm, intensifying competition for suitable lambs.

As spring progressed, new-season lambs with strong presentation achieved higher and more consistent prices. The season reinforced the importance of on-farm management decisions that protect finish, particularly in selective or supply-sensitive markets.