Rabobank warns geopolitics remains key risk for agriculture

A new report by Rabobank has revealed that geopolitics remains the dominant risk facing Australian agriculture in 2026.

The bank’s Australia Agribusiness Outlook 2026 says fast-changing trade rules, shipping disruptions and global conflict are likely to keep commodity markets volatile in the year ahead.

Despite these risks, Rabobank says Australia’s farm sector is well positioned, with the recently harvested winter grain crop the second-largest on record and meat exports continuing to perform strongly.

Grain prices are expected to remain subdued due to abundant global supply, while livestock, wool and dairy are forecast to perform relatively well.

Weather and climate risks also remain significant, with soil moisture low across much of the country and rainfall timing critical for crop and pasture development.

Overall, Rabobank expects commodity prices to sit near their five-year average, despite ongoing global uncertainty.