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  • Writer's pictureFlow Australia

Indigenous voice 'yes' case leads only in two states

The prime minister says the campaign to constitutionally enshrine an Indigenous voice has a long way to go, brushing off polling which shows a drop in support.

Support for a constitutionally enshrined Indigenous voice appears to have dropped below 50 per cent in every state and remains ahead of the 'no' vote in only two states.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has brushed off suggestions the success of the referendum is in trouble, saying there's a long way to go before Australians enter the ballot box. 

"We have a range of (no) campaigns designed to create confusion, really, in the community," he told ABC Radio on Monday. 

"There is nothing to fear from this process and everything to gain."

The yes case hasn't secured an absolute majority in any state, a Newspoll demographic analysis published by The Australian on Monday suggested.

It found those most likely to support the Indigenous advisory body were higher-income earners, university educated, renters and the young.

Those opposed to the voice included voters with no tertiary education, retirees, mortgagees and people who owned their home outright.

The article said the race was still close, but the referendum based on current attitudes would fail to meet both requirements of a referendum.

Indigenous Australians Minister Linda Burney said she felt a momentum in favour of the voice that was not reflected in the polls.


"Every day there is someone significant coming out supporting the yes campaign ... Everywhere I go, I feel that momentum," she told the ABC in a separate interview.

Ms Burney said the opposition was trying to muddy the waters with questions about things the voice would not be about. 

She said the debate was taking a toll on Indigenous Australians, particularly young people.

"(The voice) will make a practical difference to the lives of Aboriginal people ... that is why it is worth going forward with this referendum," she said.

"I've been involved in Aboriginal politics for 44 years and I have seen many, many things and I can tell you that this chance at constitutional reform is our shot in the locker that's going to make a difference." 

For the referendum to succeed, a national majority in the affirmative and a majority of the six states is required.

An analysis in April, before the final wording of the referendum was settled, had showed majority support in every state except Queensland.

The latest analysis showed the yes vote nationally at 43 per cent when averaged over Newspoll surveys between May and July this year, with the no vote at 46 per cent.

The yes case now leads in only NSW and South Australia, is tied with the no vote in Victoria and trails in Western Australia, Queensland and Tasmania.

Those most opposed to the voice lived in Queensland, followed by WA then Tasmania.

Victoria was tied, with SA the most supportive and NSW not too far behind SA.


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