FERTILISER AFFORDABILITY REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE

A new report from Rabobank has found Australian farmers have moved beyond the most acute fertiliser supply concerns seen earlier this year, but high prices and uncertain seasonal conditions are expected to weigh on demand through to 2027.

Rabobank senior analyst Vitor Pistoia says the Australian market has shifted towards a more balanced supply situation, despite fertiliser prices rising faster than key agricultural commodity prices.

Local urea prices reached $1,500 a tonne at the height of the Middle East disruption, almost double the lows recorded earlier in the year.

However, Australia has imported 2.92 million tonnes of urea since November 2025, only around 15 per cent below recent averages, indicating widespread shortages have largely been avoided.

The report says farmers are responding to higher costs by reducing application rates and changing crop rotations.

Seasonal conditions will now be a key influence on demand, particularly for summer crops, with inadequate subsoil moisture across parts of eastern Australia and the return of El Niño adding further uncertainty.