Record High for Farm Sector, But Decline on the Horizon

Australian agriculture is on track to reach a record 101.4 billion dollars in gross production value in 2025–26, before easing the following year as seasonal conditions and prices turn less favourable.

The latest outlook from ABARES shows combined agriculture, fisheries and forestry expected to peak at 107.4 billion dollars in 2025–26 — the highest level on record.

Strong crop volumes have been a key driver. Despite below-average rainfall across parts of south-east Australia, growers produced the second largest winter crop on record, supported by timely rain and mild spring temperatures.

Export values are also forecast to lift six per cent to 80.5 billion dollars, reflecting higher crop shipments and firm livestock prices.

However, this strength is not expected to continue, with seasonal conditions and commodity prices forecast to soften in 2026–27.

ABARES Executive Director Jared Greenville says production is likely to ease, with below-average autumn rainfall forecast for much of southern Australia and global crop markets trending lower.

The gross value of farm production is tipped to decline six per cent to 95 billion dollars. Livestock and livestock products are forecast to fall eight per cent to 43 billion dollars, while crop values are expected to drop five per cent to 52 billion dollars.

Broadacre farm profit is also projected to ease by 14 per cent to an average of 126 thousand dollars per farm, as lower returns combine with rising input costs.