Record beef production forecast as national herd stabilises – Meat & Livestock Australia

Australia’s beef industry is on track to break production records in 2025, according to Meat & Livestock Australia’s (MLA) latest Australian Cattle Industry Projections September Update.

Despite a slight easing in herd numbers, the national cattle herd is forecast to remain stable at 31 million head, supported by strong seasonal conditions in the north and strategic herd management in the south.

MLA Acting Market Information Manager, Erin Lukey said these figures reflect the latest seasonal, market and production data

“These projections are a vital tool for the red meat industry. They provide a clear, evidence-based outlook that helps producers, processors and exporters make informed decisions,” said Ms Lukey

“By understanding the trends in herd composition, production capacity and global demand, the industry can better plan for the future and remain competitive in a dynamic global market.”

Slaughter is forecast to rise 8.6% to 9.02 million head in 2025, supported by robust cattle supply and processing capacity.        

Carcase weights are expected to remain stable at 309.5kg/head, a historically high level. This stability is underpinned by a strong proportion of grainfed cattle in the slaughter mix and solid feed availability following autumn rainfall.

Beef exports are forecast to reach 1.5 million tonnes shipped weight in 2025, as Australia continues to capitalise on global supply constraints caused by declining production in key competitor markets such as the United States and Brazil.

Looking ahead, the herd  is expected to remain stable through 2026 before easing slightly in 2027 due to drier seasonal conditions.

Ms Lukey said the industry’s focus is shifting from expansion to maintaining productivity and sustainability.

“This positions the industry well to respond to both domestic and international demand in the years ahead, ensuring that Australia continues to lead in efficiency, quality and resilience across the global red meat supply chain.”