Global grain markets may not be adequately pricing in the prospect of Russia withdrawing support for grain to be shipped through the Black Sea on Saturday, according to one analyst.
Rabobank Australia's agricultural analyst Dennis Voznesenski told Flow negotiations leading up to the nominated 19 November deadline are messy:
"There's a negotiation between Russia and the United Nations about what the UN can do to ensure Russia does sign the grain deal and allows vessels to continue leaving Ukraine. But it's getting really messy ... Russia said even if we cancel the grain deal, there will still be grain that will be allowed to go to Turkey from Ukraine. Which means - what - they're only going to shoot (at) ships that aren't going to Turkey? How would they even know?
"In my mind the market's underpricing the risk of this not going ahead. I think the market thinks that we are going to get to the 19th and the deal is going to be renewed. That's by no means locked in. Putin clearly said we could not renew it."
Hear the full interview on the Flow podcast player below:
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