Australian agriculture at a turning point as crops recover and meat prices surge - Bendigo Bank Agribusiness August Report

A wave of rain across key growing regions has revived hopes for Australia’s winter cropping season, according to Bendigo Bank’s latest Agribusiness Monthly Commodity Update.

Farmers in NSW, Queensland, and Western Australia are reporting renewed confidence, with Victorian and South Australian growers also back on track for average or above-average yields - weather permitting.

The improved outlook has seen domestic wheat prices ease, though global markets remain weighed down by record international production. Meanwhile, canola and barley are outperforming wheat in terms of returns, with Western Australia heading towards a record barley harvest.

“Canola prices remain historically strong despite a recent dip,” said Neil Burgess, Senior Manager of Industry Affairs at Bendigo Bank Agribusiness.

In the meat sector, Australian beef is experiencing booming international demand, with July setting a new monthly export volume record of nearly 150,500 tonnes. Strong US appetite continues to drive prices, undeterred by a 10% tariff imposed earlier this year under President Trump.

“Beef is a hot commodity right now, and that momentum is expected to carry through 2025,” Mr Burgess said.

Lamb and mutton markets are also smashing records. Lamb prices remain high amid tight supply, and mutton values are similarly elevated. While new season lambs may apply downward pressure heading into spring, volumes are expected to remain low, likely keeping prices above the five-year average.

In dairy, milk producers who held back from early farmgate pricing offers have reportedly received contracts over $10/Kg MS as processors scramble to secure supply. Industry talk suggests that major processors needing to secure supply have been offering private contracts well above publicly announced bids, raising questions about the pricing strategy from major processors and the application of the mandatory code of conduct intended to address the imbalance of bargaining power between farmers and processors.

Horticulture producers face mixed conditions. While prices remain elevated for many vegetables, high input costs—particularly for irrigation and fertiliser - are cutting into margins. However, urea prices have moderated since June’s spike driven by Middle East tensions.

Almond producers are enjoying a rare boom. Australian almond prices have reached decade highs as low local stock and poor harvests meet rising global demand. China’s retaliatory tariffs on US almonds have opened new export pathways for Australian growers.

Finally, wool prices have kicked off the 2025/26 season strongly, buoyed by solid demand and a drop in supply. The Australian Wool Exchange’s benchmark index has risen four weeks in a row, with the opening week recording the lowest bale offering since records began in 1995.