The $100 billion farm production value target by 2030 set by Australian farming peak bodies and backed by federal and state governments was never ambitious enough, one market analyst claims as a surge in grain prices rockets farm output towards $90 billion.
Thomas Elder Markets' Andrew Whitelaw told Flow listeners on Friday he believed the target, set in the late 2010s, could easily be reached via inflation alone:
"When that was put out in 2016, 2017, basically all we had to do was to use the value from that period where agriculture was worth and add the average inflation on to that, you get to $98 billion!
"$100 billion we are more than capable of getting to. We're at $88 billion this year (2022) ... we've got way more than $100 billion by 2030 in my view, it should be quite easy to get there.
Mr Whitelaw said the focus now needed to shift towards a broader target for agribusiness and food manufacturing in Australia:
"We should be aiming to be around that $100 billion level and it should be easy to get there, barring poor weather. But importantly the whole agriculture supply chain is looking at $300 billion, not just what happens on farm, but in the abbatoirs, in the grain export companies, the farm mills, the feed lots - I like the idea of taking a whole of industry approach to it."
Hear the full interview with Thomas Elder Markets' Andrew Whitelaw on the Flow podcast player below: