AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION VALUE FORECAST FOR SLIGHT FALL

ABARES’ latest agricultural outlook is forecasting that the value of Australian agricultural production will fall by 5% to $99.4 billion in 2026-27, with agricultural export value also expected to fall 5% to $76.3 billion.

The agency says the decline in production value reflects lower crop and livestock production, along with falling livestock prices.

Despite the predicted fall, the forecast has improved since the previous quarter, with a wetter-than-expected winter across south-east Australia supporting crop development. ABARES says high fertiliser prices have also had less impact on planted area and yields than initially expected.

National winter crop production is forecast to fall 12% to 61 million tonnes, although it would still be the fourth-largest crop on record. ABARES says favourable winter conditions across South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales have supported the crop, helping to offset poorer conditions elsewhere.

Livestock production is also expected to weaken, with its gross value forecast to fall 3% to $47.5 billion as lower cattle, sheep and pig slaughter values outweigh increases in milk, wool and poultry.

ABARES says the combination of lower revenue and continued high costs will put further pressure on farm businesses, with average broadacre farm profit forecast to fall 39% to $133,000 in 2026-27.